Which Is More Likely: Bitcoin at $1 Million or XRP at $10?
Two cryptocurrencies, two massive price targets, and one surprising answer about which climb is actually more realistic. The math behind these milestones will challenge everything you assume about how far each coin still has to go.
The Crypto Desk desk. Editor: Sam Daodu.
This post may contain links from our sponsors and affiliates, and Flywheel Publishing may receive compensation for actions taken through them.
Bitcoin(CRYPTO:BTC)reaching $1 millionandXRP(CRYPTO:XRP) hitting $10 are two major price points that many holders frequently discuss when looking ahead to the next cycle for both cryptocurrencies. While $1 million for Bitcoin may sound astronomical and $10 for XRP seems more achievable, the gap between these two targets may not be as wide as it appears.
For perspective, Bitcoin needs to grow 12.1 times from its current price of $82,965 as of October 11, 2026. In contrast, XRP needs to grow only 7.2 times from its current price of $1.39. This means XRP has a shorter distance to climb.
Bitcoin Needs a Bigger Rally to Hit $1 Million Than XRP Needs to Reach $10
When comparing price targets, it’s essential to understand how far each cryptocurrency must rise to meet those goals. A multiple effectively measures this journey by showing how much each coin must increase in value. For Bitcoin, that’s a significant 12.1x increase; meanwhile, XRP only needs to grow 7.2x. Based on this analysis, XRP has a clearer path to its target.
Looking at historical trends can provide additional context. Between 2016 and 2021, Bitcoin rose 12x. Meanwhile, XRP surged about 7 times between 2024 and 2025, rising from about $0.50 to its 2025 peak.
Each target is roughly comparable to past price surges of each coin, which lends credibility to the potential for achieving these numbers. However, it’s important not to overlook the overall market dynamics required for both cryptocurrencies to reach their targets.
Bitcoin Needs a $20 Trillion Market Value to Reach $1 Million
Market capitalization—calculated by multiplying the cryptocurrency’s price by the number of coins in circulation—gives a clearer picture of the asset’s worth and what it takes to reach a specific price target.
As of now, Bitcoin’s market value is around $1.67 trillion with roughly 20.1 million coins in circulation. For Bitcoin to reach $1 million per coin, its total market value would skyrocket to about $20.1 trillion. This figure represents an unprecedented demand for funds in the cryptocurrency market.
On the other hand, XRP has about 63.1 billion coins available. For XRP to reach $10, its market value would be only about $631 billion. Even at that price, XRP would be only about 38% of Bitcoin’s current market value, meaning that XRP at $10 would still be smaller than Bitcoin is now.
When considering both the required multiple and market demand, XRP clearly comes out ahead. It requires a smaller growth multiple andsubstantially less new investmentthan Bitcoin, which needs a much larger market influx.
Bitcoin and XRP Are Both Below Their Starting Prices for 2026
Both coins have to overcome several price levels before reaching their targets. XRP has dropped 41.3% over the past year and must first reclaim the $1.84 mark, where it started 2026. This represents a 32.4% increase from its current price. The next level to beat is $2.38, 71.2% above its current price. Only then would $10 be a serious possibility.
Similarly, Bitcoin must move pastcertain price thresholds. It started 2026 at $87,498, 5.5% above its current trading price, and was $110,769 a year earlier, 33.5% higher than where it trades now. Both critical price points are still well above Bitcoin’s current price.
Based on the analysis, XRP hitting $10 appears to be the more achievable target of the two. XRP’s required 7.2-fold increase is far less daunting than Bitcoin’s 12.1-fold rise. Additionally, XRP’s market value would only need to reach around $631 billion, compared to the staggering $20.1 trillion needed for Bitcoin.
Investors can watch key price levels to gauge potential moves toward these targets. If XRP fails to climb back above $1.84, a move to $10 becomes less likely. A close above $2.38 would signal that buyers are responding to the potential of reaching higher targets. In contrast, ifBitcoin surpasses $110,769while XRP struggles, discussions about Bitcoin reaching $1 million could gain traction.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Sam Daodu is a crypto analyst who’s spent nearly a decade making blockchain understandable—no easy task when most whitepapers read like fever dreams. He writes for 24/7 Wall St., covering Bitcoin, altcoins, and crypto market analysis for investors. Before crypto, he was a tech writer (back when explaining “the cloud” was peak innovation). Since 2018, he’s written for CoinTelegraph, Yahoo Finance, The Block, Cryptonews, Zypto, Rain, and more—basically anywhere people want crypto news without the headache. Sam runs MacLabs Marketing, a content agency for crypto brands tired of sounding like AI wrote their website. He also publishes free crypto education on his site for Web3 enthusiasts who think “gas fees” is a typo. When he’s not writing or staring at charts, Sam’s either: – Watching anime (currently convinced One Piece has better tokenomics than most altcoins) – At the gym sculpting himself into a Greek god – Listening to the music your mum warned you only bad boys listen to Connect: LinkedIn | Email | MacLabs Marketing
