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Since its launch in 2009, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has reigned supreme as the world’s top cryptocurrency. It now has a market cap of $1.7 trillion, nearly 5 times that of Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), its next closest competitor.
Given this yawning gap in size, is it really possible that any cryptocurrency might surpass Bitcoin in market cap within the next five years? After running the numbers, you might be surprised at the answer.
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Does the math work?
Bitcoin has grown at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 34% over the past decade. So, for the sake of argument, let’s assume that Bitcoin continues to grow at a 34% clip over the next five years.
For our purposes, the number to beat is $7 trillion. At the end of five years, a rival cryptocurrency needs to be worth more than $7 trillion to surpass Bitcoin.
That’s a big ask, so let’s focus on cryptocurrencies with market caps exceeding $5 billion. Several of these have been surging this year, and these large-cap coins are the most likely candidates to de-throne Bitcoin, provided they can maintain their blistering growth rates for five years.
For example, Zcash (CRYPTO: ZEC), with a market cap of $26 billion, is up 195% year to date. NEAR Protocol (CRYPTO: NEAR), with a market cap of $6 billion, is up 203%. And Hyperliquid (CRYPTO: HYPE), with a market cap of $23 billion, is up 267%.
Let’s assume that all three of these continue to grow at the same stratospherically high rates over the next five years. At the end of that period, only Hyperliquid would be worth more than $7 trillion. Zcash just isn’t growing fast enough, and NEAR Protocol is starting from a smaller market-cap base.
Let’s widen our net even further to include cryptocurrencies with market caps of $1.5 billion and higher. Venice (CRYPTO: VVV), an AI token, is up a heart-thumping 1,760% this year. Theoretically, it could catch up to Bitcoin after five years, given Bitcoin’s exponential growth rate.
